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The Coming Economic Collapse: How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel By Stephen LeebGlen Strathy ( Business Plus )
Release Date: 2007-02-21
Average Customer Rating:
List Price: $16.99
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Product Description
In The Oil Factor, Stephen Leeb accurately predicted the current oil shortage and showed how savvy investors could profit. But now the world is facing an energy crisis of unprecedented scope, and the recent surge in oil prices is only the tip of the iceberg. With meticulous research and analysis, Leeb shows that due to strong competition from India and China for the world?s oil reserves, prices could soon top an astounding $200 a barrel, bringing an economic collapse that most countries and investors are ill-prepared for. Now in this groundbreaking book, Leeb shows how this crisis will affect you, but how savvy investing can turn these dire times into financial gain.
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 Every ill in the world can be attributed to energy ( tjmotes )
I bought the audio book version and was only able to listen to about half of it. I couldn't finish it as it repeated itself constantly.
Basically what I have taken from the author is that every civilization and empire that has failed did so because of energy supply problems. Forget corruption, forget fiscal irresponsibility or anything else just chalk it up to energy supply issues. Conclusion is the collapse of the American Empire will be the result of energy supply issues.
The author constantly repeats himself throughout the book and it makes it really hard to finish.
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Some good advice, but need more analysis
I read this book based on a recommendation by someone who was bullish in investing in Gold. The financial crisis (2008) has also catapulted the author to a series of media interviews. As others have already observed, the actual investment advice came only in the last three chapters. Much of the book devoted to building up the author's credence in analysing past periods of high inflation and volatile investment environment in the 1970s. In light of the current financial crisis, some of the author's observation makes interesting reading.
Here are some of the them,
"Most authorities continue to reassure the public that today's soaring energy prices are temporary, that oil reserves are virtually limitless."
"Most people don't realise how close the dot-com crash came to destroying the economy, the society, and the very fabric of our civilization came close to disintegrating."
"... our leaders did the right thing and saved us from disaster by the rapid response from the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates to nearly zero."
And these are just the first 10 pages from the book. Leeb made a big thing about not falling into "group think" and he was the lone voice in spotting the finite nature of oil reserves. The problem is, there is no evidence that national leaders or company CEOs think oil is limitless. That is a strange concept. To put things in perspective, the dot-com crash induced recession lasted only around 6 months and mostly limited to the US. The general market and the rest of the world escape relatively unscathed. The Feds' interest rates policy directly linked to the sub-prime crisis is even harder to defend. Interestingly, the author think because real estate was a sound investment in the 1970s, and think it will remain sound for some time.
On the different in investment strategy during a volatile market, the author wrote, "a far more rewarding strategy in the 1970s was to sell shares at the market tops and buy them again at the start of the next rally." Oh, now I get it .... buy low and sell high. ;-)
I am also uncomfortable with some of the scientific assertions in support of alternative energy investment. Leeb doesn't think nuclear energy has a future because nuclear waste management is a problem. Ignoring France is 75% nuclear powered, and waste management has been effectively managed for the past decades. Wind energy is the preferred solution to the energy crisis by the author. However, no base-loaded electricity requirement was mentioned. Wind energy can not provide base-loaded electricity. For readers interested in different energy alternatives, I recommend Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak by Prof. Kenneth Deffeyes.
Gold investment actually makes a lot of sense. However, the rise and fall of gold price goes beyond the law of Supply and Demand. The strength of the US dollars used in paying for commodity, including oil and gold. And the influence of hedge funds. Even accepting the soundness of gold investment as a long term strategy, the lack of inclusion of any debate of the US dollars and hedge funds diminishes any serious recommendation.
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Maybe or Not ( pmdlite )
I wish he saw the credit market collapse and subsequent bailout. I'm off topic, i know, sorry. Regarding oil, hind sight is 20-20. After reading the book i in summer '07 i went off to my CFA and got this take: oil prices are being fueled by speculators, in inflation adjusted numbers it's still less (even at $100 plus) then the spikes in the early 80's, Not to worry the price will come done. Now with oil at 90 plus (10/08), my CFA has proven correct at least in the short term.
The book takes good sources, references, common sense, and some marketing license with the title and makes a good case. The author still sounds shrill. During the period of $140 plus, i went to the authors site expecting to get the i told you so and the get ready here it comes and here's what you can do...but NOTHING! So much for committment.
Don't get me wrong, if nothing he has heightened my senses and i will keep a diligent eye towards the oil industry, international economies, government action and inaction. I think it has elevated everyones thinking and the should be the sole reason for reading this book.
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 Great book, wish I read it earlier. ( kremeg )
This book has a lot of great info, particularly about economy and aspects of history that may be misunderstood, or may have been completely misrepresented to us. The book is also a relatively easy read. I read it about a year ago, which was actually a little late, but even now it is still a worthwhile investment.
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skip this one
The investment advice is based on the assumption that the "coming economic collapse" will be like the recession in the 1970s. Pretty unlikely, given that the causes are totally different. He just wants us to buy gold - who needs his book to hear this?
This is a simplistic book with little to recommend it.
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