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Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy By Matthew R. Simmons ( Wiley )
Release Date: 2006-06-05
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List Price: $16.95
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Product Description
Twilight in the Desert reveals a Saudi oil and production industry that could soon approach a serious, irreversible decline. In this exhaustively researched book, veteran oil industry analyst Matthew Simmons draws on his three-plus decades of insider experience and more than 200 independently produced reports about Saudi petroleum resources and production operations. He uncovers a story about Saudi Arabia’s troubled oil industry, not to mention its political and societal instability, which differs sharply from the globally accepted Saudi version. It’s a story that is provocative and disturbing, based on undeniable facts, but until now never told in its entirety. Twilight in the Desert answers all readers’ questions about Saudi oil and production industries with keen examination instead of unsubstantiated posturing, and takes its place as one of the most important books of this still-young century.
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 Must Read On This Subject ( hwolf36 )
Matt Simmons has done his homework, and this book will be sited and quoted for years to come. If you want to see what the future looks like as we sail into the energy "perfect storm", this book will take you there.
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A great book
A very interesting book. A beautiful rendition of speculative thought. The possibilities are thought provoking.
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Twilight in the Desert
Excellent book well researched by Mr. Simmons, who years ago predicted $100 oil when most of the major oil companies were selling properties and downsizing. They ignored his predications and now are smaller and less prepared for expansion while oil exceeds $100 per bbl. His style may be a bit repetitive and dry for the non engineer or person familiar with the oil and gas industry but he makes a very plausible case.
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 Well researched, but fails to "connect the dots"
Mr. Simmons' purpose in writing this book was to assess how long Saudi Arabia will be able to sustain its present rate of oil production. His assessment required extensive detective work as well as "reading between the lines" of Saudi Arabia's official statements because the Saudi's are highly secretive about their oil fields and they do not make any of their production data available to the public. Mr. Simmons concluded that Saudi Arabia will not be able to sustain its current production rates much longer and will soon enter a period of rapid decline.
Mr. Simmons' thesis is that conditions experienced at individual oil wells can be extrapolated to determine the level of depletion of the entire oil field in which the wells are located. As background, Mr. Simmons used old, but comprehensive, data on Saudi oil fields that were compiled prior to when Saudi Arabia nationalized its oil industry. This data establishes which Saudi oil fields are the largest and most productive. Mr. Simmons then analyzed more recent papers written on individual wells within the most important Saudi oil fields to see if these wells were exibiting signs consistent with oil field depletion. For example, oil wells with problems such as "gas caps" or "high water cuts" can be an indication that the entire oil field is in an advanced state of depletion. Mr. Simmons concluded that problems indicative of depletion are occurring at wells in Saudi's most productive oil fields. Mr. Simmons also noted that production increases at smaller fields and the development of newly discovered fields have been barely sufficient to offset the declines at the older fields.
Mr. Simmons is a formidable researcher, but his writing skills leave something to be desired. Rather than condense the complex technical information into coherent conclusions, he simply repeats the same facts over and over, apparently hoping that the reader will "connect the dots" for himself. Because of this, I probably missed many of the points Mr. Simmons was trying to make. Better organization and summary of the complex material could have made the book half as long as twice as understandable.
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a must read
if you really want to understand why oil prices have risen and are likely to stay high for a long time, this is a must read. for some reason, americans feel as if they have a divine right to cheap fuel; we are 5% of the world's populationa and consume 25% of each year's oil production. as large parts of the world economy expand outside of the US, we will be competing for oil resources and since we produce hardly any oil ourselves, we can bid for oil at the going price or go without. the book is a call to arms for the US to realize the facts and do something before the crisis overwhelms us.
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